Robotaxis Are Coming Fastest to China and the US While Europe Will Lag Behind
Autonomous taxis are set to transform urban transportation in the coming years, but the rollout will happen at very different speeds around the world. China and the United States are pulling ahead thanks to supportive regulations, massive investments, and quicker paths to commercial operations. Europe faces a tougher road with fragmented rules across countries and steeper costs that slow everything down. Analysts from Boston Consulting Group predict that by 2035, the global fleet of fully autonomous robotaxis could reach between 700,000 and three million vehicles in major cities. China is expected to dominate with around 850,000 units, the US follows with about 350,000, and Europe trails far behind at roughly 120,000.
Consumer readiness plays a big role in this divide. Surveys show that about 60 percent of people in China are already open to hopping in a robotaxi today. Acceptance sits lower in the US and Europe at 30 to 35 percent right now, though it could climb to 60 percent in the US and over 45 percent in Europe by 2030. Safety, reliability, and affordability compared to regular taxis will drive that shift more than the tech itself. In places where robotaxis prove dependable and cheaper, they stand to capture a huge share of city trips, potentially 55 to 85 percent in wealthier urban areas.
China benefits from lower costs overall, with operations running 30 to 50 percent cheaper due to affordable tech development and labor. Services like Baidu’s Apollo Go have already scaled to around 20 cities there, delivering millions of driverless rides and expanding aggressively. The US scene features strong players too, with Waymo operating in multiple cities like San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Miami, while planning big expansions to places like Dallas, Denver, and others throughout 2026. Tesla has started its robotaxi efforts in Austin and San Francisco, aiming for more cities soon, though its fleet growth remains gradual compared to leaders.
Europe’s challenges stem from inconsistent regulations that vary by nation and higher expenses for energy, labor, and compliance. Launching in just one US city can cost between 15 and 30 million dollars and take up to two years, but those barriers look even taller across the Atlantic. Still, things are starting to move, with announcements of pilots and deployments planned for 2026 in cities like London, Berlin, and Munich from companies including Waymo, Baidu through partnerships, and others. These early steps could help close the gap over time, especially as global experience builds trust and refines the technology.
Private cars are not going away anytime soon, particularly in suburbs or regions without strict low-emission zones and pricey parking. Robotaxis will shine most in dense city centers where convenience and cost savings matter most. The race highlights how policy and economics shape innovation more than engineering alone these days.
What do you think about the future of robotaxis in your country, share your thoughts in the comments.
