Bitwise Predictions For 2026 Signal The End Of The Crypto Cycle As We Know It
The cryptocurrency market has historically followed a predictable rhythm known as the four-year cycle. This pattern typically revolves around the Bitcoin halving events and results in three years of bullish momentum followed by a year of sharp correction. Many investors have come to rely on this schedule to time their entries and exits while expecting 2026 to be a traditional bear market year. A new report from asset manager Bitwise challenges this long-held assumption and suggests the industry is entering a completely new era.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen recently released their ten crypto predictions for the upcoming year. Their most significant forecast argues that Bitcoin will break its historical four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs in 2026. The report suggests that the forces driving previous cycles such as halving events and retail speculation are becoming weaker. These factors are being replaced by sustained institutional demand and a more favorable regulatory environment which could smooth out the extreme volatility of the past.
One of the most striking claims in the report involves the comparison between Bitcoin and major technology stocks. Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will actually be less volatile than Nvidia in the coming year. This shift would mark a major maturation point for the asset class as it transitions from a speculative instrument to a standard portfolio component. The analysts believe that spot ETFs will continue to play a massive role by absorbing more than 100 percent of the new supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The predictions extend beyond just price action and volatility metrics. The researchers anticipate that crypto equities will outperform traditional technology stocks as the sector gains legitimacy. They also forecast that half of all Ivy League endowments will begin investing in cryptocurrency. This institutional embrace is expected to coincide with the launch of more than 100 new crypto-linked exchange-traded funds in the United States alone. Such developments would fundamentally alter the market structure by adding layers of persistent buying pressure that did not exist in previous cycles.
Regulatory changes are also highlighted as a critical catalyst for the growth of alternative coins. The report notes that Ethereum and Solana could set new all-time highs if specific legislation like the CLARITY Act is passed. The analysts also see a boom in decentralized prediction markets and expect Polymarket open interest to surpass the levels seen during the 2024 election. However, not all predictions are positive for global stability as Bitwise warns that stablecoins might be blamed for destabilizing the currency of an emerging market.
Do you believe the traditional four-year crypto cycle is truly dead or will history repeat itself in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments.
