Football Field-Sized Asteroid Has a 1-in-83 Chance of Striking Earth in 2032
Discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey on Christmas Day, 2024, an asteroid named 2024 YR4 has recently been the subject of much discussion among astronomers.
The asteroid, measuring about 180 feet in diameter—roughly the size of a football field—is currently hurtling through space and has a small yet noteworthy chance of impacting Earth in 2032.
This space rock was located approximately 515,116 miles from our planet when it was first spotted, a distance that might seem safe at first glance.
However, its potential threat becomes clearer with its Torino risk scale rating of three. This indicates a 1% or greater chance of collision with Earth, enough to cause localized devastation should it strike.
The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies highlights the seriousness of the situation with its analysis of six possible impact scenarios stretching from 2032 to 2074.
The most critical of these is set for December 22, 2032. If an impact occurs, it could happen at a blistering speed of 10.76 miles per second, unleashing energy equivalent to 12 megatons of TNT.
The hypothetical impact zone is none other than New York City, where the asteroid could explode approximately 2.8 miles above the ground.
Such an explosion would not only be catastrophic but also lethal, with an estimated 3.4 million fatalities from the initial fireball and nearly 7 million people suffering severe burns.
The structural damage would be extensive as well, with buildings collapsing within a 5.4-mile radius and trees being uprooted as far as 8 miles from the impact site.
Despite these grim predictions, there’s a silver lining. History has shown that initial assessments can change with more observations.
EarthSky recalls the instance of asteroid 99942 Apophis, which once had a Torino scale rating of four and was later downgraded to zero, indicating no significant threat.
As we continue to monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4, scientists remain hopeful that further studies will similarly reduce its risk level, averting a potential disaster.
